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Ab initioquantum mechanical models can characterize and predict intermolecular binding, but only recently have models including more than a few hundred atoms gained traction. Here, we simulate the electronic structure for approximately 13 000 atoms to predict and characterize binding of SARS-CoV-2 spike variants to the human ACE2 (hACE2) receptor using the quantum mechanics complexity reduction (QM-CR) approach. We compare four spike variants in our analysis: Wuhan, Omicron, and two Omicron-based variants. To assess binding, we mechanistically characterize the energetic contribution of each amino acid involved, and predict the effect of select single amino acid mutations. We validate our computational predictions experimentally by comparing the efficacy of spike variants binding to cells expressing hACE2. At the time we performed our simulations (December 2021), the mutation A484K which our model predicted to be highly beneficial to ACE2 binding had not been identified in epidemiological surveys; only recently (August 2023) has it appeared in variant BA.2.86. We argue that our computational model, QM-CR, can identify mutations critical for intermolecular interactions and inform the engineering of high-specificity interactors. 

Abstract We employ a recently developed complexity-reduction quantum mechanical (QM-CR) approach, based on complexity reduction of density functional theory calculations, to characterize the interactions of the SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) with ACE2 host receptors and antibodies. QM-CR operates via ab initio identification of individual amino acid residue’s contributions to chemical binding and leads to the identification of the impact of point mutations. Here, we especially focus on the E484K mutation of the viral spike protein. We find that spike residue 484 hinders the spike's binding to the human ACE2 receptor (hACE2). In contrast, the same residue is beneficial in binding to the bat receptor Rhinolophus macrotis ACE2 (macACE2). In agreement with empirical evidence, QM-CR shows that the E484K mutation allows the spike to evade categories of neutralizing antibodies like C121 and C144. The simulation also shows how the Delta variant spike binds more strongly to hACE2 compared to the original Wuhan strain, and predicts that a E484K mutation can further improve its binding. Broad agreement between the QM-CR predictions and experimental evidence supports the notion that ab initio modeling has now reached the maturity required to handle large intermolecular interactions central to biological processes. 

Abstract SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike (S)-protein D614G mutations now predominate globally. We therefore compare the properties of the mutated S protein (S G614 ) with the original (S D614 ). We report here pseudoviruses carrying S G614 enter ACE2-expressing cells more efficiently than those with S D614 . This increased entry correlates with less S1-domain shedding and higher S-protein incorporation into the virion. Similar results are obtained with virus-like particles produced with SARS-CoV-2 M, N, E, and S proteins. However, D614G does not alter S-protein binding to ACE2 or neutralization sensitivity of pseudoviruses. Thus, D614G may increase infectivity by assembling more functional S protein into the virion.